Fire Umbra RangerTier 2
at Mox Valley ALC Regional
decks
2
(6.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
4-7-0
overall winrate
36.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.1%
avg ELO -3.0 per match
expected value
45.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1278
· median 1278
· range 1246–1310
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1051
Q1 1183
Q3 1313
1440
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 16.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +2.9 |
| Water Allies | 13.3% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 40.0% | -6.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
